Shipping Weekly – 16 Oct 2026 | Rates Rebound After 13 Weeks, a Container Ship Sinks in Hormuz

In the week of 9–16 October 2026, the 13-week decline in Asia-Europe rates came to a stop. The Drewry World Container Index published on 15 October rose 3% to $4,485, with Shanghai-Rotterdam up 6% to $3,522. Carriers are attempting FAK rates of $4,500–4,800 per 40ft on Asia-Europe, and next week’s blank sailings on that lane fall to two (from six this week) — whether the increase actually sticks will become clear with the next release. On the geopolitical side, the major development was not in the Red Sea but in the Strait of Hormuz. On 14 October, the Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride sank after being damaged in the strait; all 21 crew were evacuated safely. On the Africa side, Maersk announced a China-Hong Kong-Taiwan to West Africa PSS above CMA CGM’s level, and Yang Ming deployed a new LNG vessel on its Asia-West Mediterranean MS2 service — without changing its Cape of Good Hope rotation.

This week’s key points

• The 13-week decline stopped and Asia-Europe rebounded. The Drewry WCI published on 15 October rose 3% to $4,485. Shanghai-Rotterdam gained 6% to $3,522 and Shanghai-Genoa gained 7% to $3,945. Carriers are attempting FAK rates of $4,500–4,800 per 40ft on Asia-Europe, with next week’s blank sailings on that lane falling to two from six this week. Whether the increase holds remains uncertain.
• It was Hormuz, not Suez, where a ship actually went down. On 14 October the Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride sank after being damaged in the Strait of Hormuz; all 21 crew were evacuated safely. The Antigua and Barbuda-flagged cargo ship Cape Dao also sank in the same area (hit on 23 September, with one Indian crew member killed). More than 20 vessels have been attacked this month alone, and transits through the strait have fallen to roughly a tenth of normal.
• Maersk announced a PSS above CMA CGM’s level. Effective 26 October, Maersk revised its China-Hong Kong-Taiwan to West Africa PSS to $800 per 20ft and $1,600 per 40ft/45ft — above CMA CGM’s level for the same week (effective 22 October: Central $350, North/South $550). The scope remains China, Hong Kong and Taiwan origin, with no mention yet of Japan-origin cargo.
• Yang Ming put a new LNG vessel on MS2 — and kept it on the Cape. Yang Ming deployed the newbuild LNG dual-fuel vessel YM Weight (15,600 TEU) on MS2 (Asia-West Mediterranean). The round-trip rotation is unchanged and remains routed via the Cape of Good Hope in both directions. Assigning a newbuild to the Cape route can be read as evidence that the carrier has no near-term plan to move MS2 to Suez.

Container rates and market conditions

The composite rose to $4,485, breaking the 13-week Asia-Europe decline. Shanghai-Rotterdam gained 6% and Shanghai-Genoa 7%, the largest increases on any lane this week. But the detail behind the number is not a simple demand recovery. Next week’s Asia-Europe blank sailings fell sharply from six to two, yet rates rose anyway — carriers appear to be adding capacity while trying to make a higher FAK of $4,500–4,800 per 40ft stick. Whether it actually sticks will be confirmed by the next release on 22 October; if it does not, this week’s rebound may prove to be a one-off asking price (how ocean freight cost is built up).

Port congestion was mixed. Tema improved for a third straight week (6.35 → 5.8 → 5.59 days) and Durban improved from 7.0 to 5.73 days, but Conakry worsened from 10.0 to 13.33 days (Japan to Durban route, Japan to Dakar route). Separately, reports put yard utilisation at 95% in Pointe-Noire, Republic of Congo — the port Maersk only just designated as a new transshipment hub — echoing a pattern already seen at Tema and Abidjan, where congestion surfaces soon after a port is elevated to hub status. Dakar, Lagos and Mogadishu were again not listed, so visibility into those ports remains limited (demurrage and detention). Singapore berth waits have worsened to 3–5 days, with yards reported near full.

Is the rate rebound real? Three things shippers should watch

First, the substance of the rebound is not yet confirmed. Rates rose while blank sailings were cut sharply, suggesting carriers are adding capacity while attempting to push through a higher FAK. Whether it sticks will be visible in the next Drewry release (22 October). It is too early to lock in long-term contracts on the assumption that this rebound holds.

Second, Africa-bound surcharges are moving on a separate axis from the headhaul trade — and their origin scope is widening. CMA CGM introduced a new PSS of $200 per TEU (effective 15 October) on Southeast Asia-origin cargo to northern West Africa, in addition to its China-origin surcharge, while Maersk raised its China-Hong Kong-Taiwan to West Africa PSS to $800/20ft and $1,600/40ft (effective 26 October, above CMA CGM’s 22 October level). The West Africa surcharge increase is no longer a single carrier’s move — it has become an industry-wide trend. Quotes should be re-taken with both the destination country and the cargo origin stated explicitly.

Third, the switch away from the Cape is proceeding service by service, and the pace is uneven. Yang Ming put the newbuild LNG vessel YM Weight on MS2, yet the rotation remains on the Cape of Good Hope in both directions, unchanged. Meanwhile the Premier Alliance’s FE1 enters its execution phase on 19 October, and IOX/INX is expected to shorten its round trip from 13 to 10 weeks. Verify the actual port rotation and cut-off rather than relying on a service name or carrier name (reading ETD, ETA and cut-off).

Carrier by carrier

Red Sea and Hormuz: the operating assumptions

In the Red Sea (Bab el-Mandeb), no new commercial vessel attack was confirmed since the 4 October Chrystal Sky incident reported last week. A UN Security Council report warns that the Houthis “retain the capability to strike ships from the northern Red Sea coast,” but the return of westbound Suez transits has not stopped in the meantime, with the Premier Alliance’s first sailing set for 19 October. Separately, on 7 October the Houthis launched missile strikes on Saudi Arabia itself — King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Abha airport and Aramco’s headquarters — killing three and wounding 36. These were strikes on land targets rather than commercial vessels, but they raise the temperature of the wider regional picture.

This week’s geopolitical epicentre was instead the Strait of Hormuz. On 14 October, the Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride sank after being damaged and catching fire; all 21 crew were evacuated safely. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claims the vessel struck a mine, though a maritime security firm says there is no independent confirmation. The Antigua and Barbuda-flagged cargo ship Cape Dao also sank in the same area (hit on 23 September, with one Indian crew member killed), bringing the total to more than 20 vessels attacked this month alone, mostly tankers. Transits have fallen to roughly a tenth of normal — only two AIS-visible transits were recorded on 11 October against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 a day, with 172 vessels currently holding position outside the strait. Routes through Hormuz do not directly overlap with the lanes covered in this newsletter, but rising war-risk insurance premiums and fuel surcharges could spill over into other trades, so it is worth tracking fuel and risk-related surcharges individually going forward.

Practical points for shippers and forwarders

• Confirm whether the rate rebound sticks at the next release (22 October). Rates rose while blank sailings were cut sharply, and whether the attempted FAK of $4,500–4,800 per 40ft actually holds is still uncertain. It is too early to lock in long-term contracts on this rebound.
• Two carriers have raised West Africa PSS back to back. Maersk (China-Hong Kong-Taiwan origin, effective 26 October, $800/20ft and $1,600/40ft) and CMA CGM (China and Southeast Asia origin, effective 22 October, Central $350, North/South $550). Re-quote with both destination country and cargo origin stated explicitly.
• Yang Ming’s MS2 remains on the Cape of Good Hope. Switches happen service by service rather than by carrier or alliance name, so verify the actual port rotation and cut-off.
• West Africa ports are a mixed picture. Tema and Durban improved, but Conakry worsened (13.33 days) and the new hub port of Pointe-Noire shows 95% yard utilisation. Quote on a gate-out basis rather than vessel ETA.
• Monitor the Strait of Hormuz escalation as a driver of fuel and risk surcharges. Direct routing impact is limited, but insurance cost trends can spill over into other trades.
• The Hapag-Lloyd/ZIM acquisition remains prolonged. The next milestone is the Q3 results in mid-November.

What to watch next

• 19 OctPremier Alliance’s ONE Continuity departs Laem Chabang, starting FE1’s return to Suez. Its first westbound Suez transit is 9 November.
• 19 OctMSC’s Piracy $55 + Suez $36 per TEU takes effect across roughly 35 Mediterranean and North African ports.
• 22 OctCMA CGM’s second-stage China-origin West Africa PSS takes effect (Central $350, North/South $550). The next Drewry WCI release lands the same day — a key read on whether this week’s rebound holds.
• 26 OctMaersk’s China-Hong Kong-Taiwan to West Africa PSS ($800/$1,600) takes effect.
• 27 OctMaersk’s AE12 vessel Umm Qarn departs Tanjung Pelepas — AE12’s first Suez transit.
• Coming weeksHapag-Lloyd/ZIM: submission of the revised proposal to Israeli authorities.
• OngoingWhether Yang Ming’s MS2 moves to Suez — unlikely in the near term after the newbuild deployment to the Cape route.
• OngoingWhether an Evergreen-operated westbound Suez transit is disclosed, after eight weeks of silence.
• OngoingThe Strait of Hormuz situation — further escalation, and any spillover into the Red Sea.
• OngoingWest Africa ports — Conakry’s deterioration and yard pressure at Pointe-Noire.

Sources

1. Drewry — World Container Index (published 15 October 2026)
2. Xeneta — Weekly ocean container shipping market update (8 October)
3. El Estrecho Digital — Suez container capacity exceeds 50% of pre-crisis levels
4. Kuehne+Nagel — Port operational updates (7–13 October)
5. Container Mag — MSC raises North Europe-North America FAK rates from October 2026
6. Container News — MSC extends piracy and Suez surcharges on Asia-Mediterranean trade
7. DataPortuaria — Maersk revises peak season surcharge on Asia-West Africa route
8. Maersk — IMEA Market Update October 2026
9. Container News — CMA CGM announces new peak season surcharges on Asia-Africa trades
10. Container News — CMA CGM raises West Africa surcharges and updates Mogadishu PSS
11. WorldCargo News — German government definitively blocks COSCO takeover of Zippel
12. Container News — Hapag-Lloyd details revised ZIM proposal to address Israeli concerns
13. Container News — Ocean Network Express publishes Sustainability Report 2026
14. Splash247 — Fire-stricken HMM boxship seeks refuge in South Africa
15. The Loadstar — HMM upsizes plan to boost box shipping fleet with extra orders
16. Breakbulk News — Yang Ming deploys 15,600 TEU LNG vessel on Asia-Mediterranean service
17. MarketBeat — ZIM upgraded at Zacks Research
18. ad-hoc-news — Wan Hai reports 97.63 percent September growth
19. CNN — Two cargo ships sunk in Strait of Hormuz as Iran ramps up attacks
20. straits.live — Strait of Hormuz Status: October 15, 2026

This article was compiled by the OCEAN FREIGHT JAPAN editorial team from carrier announcements and press reports (period covered: 9–16 October 2026). The Drewry WCI figures are from the 15 October release, and port waiting times are from Kuehne+Nagel’s 7–13 October report. Rate and surcharge levels and conditions may change after publication and can differ by origin, cargo and contract terms. Please confirm applicability with each carrier’s official tariff and quotation.