Shipping Weekly – 10 Sep 2026 | Suez Recovery Hits 30%

The week of 3 to 10 September 2026 was when the Red Sea and Suez recovery moved from announcements to measurable numbers. Maersk disclosed that it has already shifted more than 30% of its Cape-routed volumes back through Suez, making a return to normal by year end look considerably more plausible. Meanwhile Hapag-Lloyd’s bid for ZIM was given 30 more days by the Israeli government – neither approved nor rejected, but extended. Spot rates on Asia-Europe fell faster than the headline index suggests, while congestion at West African ports actually worsened, keeping lead times on that trade hard to predict.

Key points this week

• Maersk has moved over 30% of its Cape volumes back to Suez. This is the first quantified measure of how far the Red Sea recovery has actually progressed, and the carrier says conditions are falling into place for further shifts.
• The ZIM decision was an extension, not a rejection. Eight Israeli government bodies filed their positions on 9 September and a majority were reported to be opposed, but the outcome was a second chance rather than a veto. Hapag-Lloyd and Israeli fund FIMI will submit an improved proposal by the end of September.
• COSCO carried more and earned less. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings reported first-half 2026 container volumes up 8% to 14.3 million TEU, while net profit fell 34% year on year to US$2 billion.
• West African congestion has not eased. Abidjan (Côte d’Ivoire) is running window-vessel delays of up to 8 days on yard congestion, with a terminal recovery plan expected to take 6-7 weeks. Tema (Ghana) is at 4-6 days on a crane outage, and Apapa (Lagos) continues to suffer from rainfall and yard congestion.

Container rates and market conditions

The composite index was flat, but the components moved in opposite directions: gains on the Transpacific offset losses on Asia-Europe. Looking only at the Europe trades, Shanghai to Genoa dropped 10% in a single week and Shanghai to Rotterdam fell 5%. The Mediterranean took the larger hit because it is the trade whose distance shortens most when ships return to Suez. West Africa, by contrast, remains constrained on the port side rather than by pricing – yard congestion at Abidjan, a crane outage at Tema, and rainfall plus yard congestion at Apapa. Falling freight rates and port congestion continue to move independently of each other.

What does the Suez recovery mean for space to Africa?

Maersk’s figure of “over 30% restored” also means that roughly 70% of those volumes are still sailing around the Cape. As that remainder returns, tonnage previously absorbed by the longer Cape routing is redeployed onto Asia-Europe mainline services. When ships complete more round trips over a shorter distance, effective capacity rises and rates tend to fall – which is exactly what this week’s Asia-Europe numbers show.

For shippers moving cargo to Africa, however, cheaper freight comes with less predictable space. Services to West Africa that have been operating via the Cape are the ones most likely to be reviewed as tonnage is reallocated. That makes it rational to book earlier and prioritise securing space precisely when rates are falling (route directory).

Carrier by carrier

What this means for shippers and forwarders

• Allow extra time to Abidjan through mid-October. Yard congestion is delaying window vessels by up to 8 days and the terminal recovery plan is expected to take 6-7 weeks. Working backwards, normal operations should not be assumed before mid-October, so ETAs for September and October loadings should carry roughly two weeks of buffer when advising consignees.
• The Tema delay is a physical equipment problem. Berthing delays of 4-6 days at Tema stem from a crane outage rather than volume congestion, so they will not clear simply because cargo flows ease. A quick improvement is unlikely.
• Longer waits raise the risk of exceeding free time. Where anchorage or berthing waits run beyond a week, the probability of incurring storage and equipment detention charges rises sharply. Settle the definition of the start date and any extension terms before loading (demurrage vs detention / Japan to Apapa).
• The dry-cargo surcharge to West Africa is still China-origin only. CMA CGM’s US$300 per TEU applies to China origins and, as of this week, has not extended to other Asian origins including Japan. Given the precedent, it is worth asking explicitly whether a West Africa PSS applies whenever you request a quote (ocean freight cost breakdown).
• There is more room to negotiate rates. As COSCO’s results illustrate, the major carriers share a pattern of growing volume while losing profit. That is a phase in which lines need to chase cargo, which makes contract discussions into year end and next year easier to shape.
• East Africa genuinely gains an option from late September. HMM’s GIA launches in the fourth week of September. With four carriers sharing the service, space should be relatively accessible – but it is a roughly 2,800 TEU feeder originating in India, so Japan-origin cargo will transship. Build that into transit-time expectations rather than treating it as a direct service (Japan to Mombasa / Japan to Dar es Salaam).
• The Suez recovery is itself a space risk. Maersk’s “over 30%” also implies that 70% is still to come. As tonnage is reallocated to Asia-Europe, Cape-routed services may be reviewed – so falling rates are exactly when it pays to book early and lock in space (SOC containers / SOC vs COC / preparing for container shortages).

What to watch next week

• End SepHapag-Lloyd and FIMI file their improved proposal for ZIM. This is the 30-day deadline, and the Israeli government’s subsequent review is the key branch point.
• Wk 4 SepHMM’s GIA service to East Africa sails from Nhava Sheva for the first time.
• 1 OctONE’s Europe Environment Surcharge for Q4 takes effect, including the extension to UK cargo.
• Mid-OctProgress on Abidjan’s 6-7 week terminal recovery plan, which determines when ETA assumptions for Côte d’Ivoire can return to normal.
• OngoingWhether CMA CGM’s West Africa dry PSS spreads to other Asian origins, including Japan.
• OngoingThe pace of Maersk’s Suez restoration beyond the current 30%, which will shape Cape-routed space availability.
• OngoingBrazil’s CADE review of Hapag-Lloyd and ZIM, with a deadline at the end of March 2027.

Sources

1. Maritime Executive — Hapag-Lloyd gets extension to rework bid for ZIM
2. Globes — Hapag-Lloyd, FIMI to submit improved offer for ZIM
3. Splash247 — Hapag-Lloyd reshapes ZIM bid to secure Israeli approval
4. The Times of Israel — National security concerns over the ZIM sale
5. Breakbulk News — Hapag-Lloyd faces Sept 9 test
6. The Loadstar — Hapag-Lloyd offers new proposals for ZIM
7. Container News — COSCO Shipping Holdings profit falls 34%
8. IndexBox — COSCO H1 2026 volumes and profit
9. Container News — The return of container shipping to the Red Sea
10. Maersk — AE19 trans-Suez structural change
11. Container News — Maersk local charges and fuel surcharges
12. Container News — CMA CGM Far East to West Africa PSS
13. The Guardian (Nigeria) — CMA CGM China–West Africa PSS
14. Container News — ONE updates Europe Environment Surcharge for Q4
15. ONE — Surcharge updates
16. Evergreen — Advisory GAD-026-00 (7 September 2026)
17. Logistics Insider — HMM India–East Africa GIA service
18. Seoul Economic Daily — HMM East Africa feeder network
19. The Korea Times — HMM India–East Africa route
20. DCN — World Container Index, 3 September 2026
21. Drewry — World Container Index
22. Kuehne+Nagel — Port operational updates (2-8 September 2026)
23. Hapag-Lloyd — Africa operational update
24. The Loadstar — MSC schedules more services for Suez transit
25. BigGo Finance — Taiwanese carrier share moves

This article was compiled by the OCEAN FREIGHT JAPAN editorial team from carrier disclosures and press reporting (period covered: 3-10 September 2026). Rate and surcharge levels and their conditions may change after announcement, and actual application varies by origin, cargo and contract terms. Always confirm applicability against the carrier’s official tariff and your own quotation.