Shipping Weekly

Shipping Weekly – 1 Oct 2026 | The Westbound Suez Switch Finally Has a Date

The week of 24 September to 1 October 2026 gave a date to the one thing we said last week would really matter: the westbound switch. COSCO and OOCL have finished moving ten eastbound sailings through Suez since mid-September, and are now set for their first westbound (Asia-origin) Suez transit on 4 October. On the Gemini side, Maersk named Umm Qarn for the first AE12 transit and published a rotation with a double call at Algeciras. Meanwhile Hapag-Lloyd’s acquisition of ZIM went backwards: Israel’s Government Companies Authority closed its review of the original application, effectively resetting the process. Spot rates on Asia-Europe kept sliding, with the Drewry WCI at $4,468. Because scheduled capacity around Golden Week is up 27% year on year, the market may flip from capacity shortage to surplus once the holiday ends.

This week’s key points

  • The westbound Suez switch now has a date. COSCO and OOCL are set to make their first westbound (Asia-origin) Suez sailing on 4 October (Linerlytica), after shifting ten eastbound sailings to the canal since mid-September. OOCL also plans a separate “trial” transit during October.
  • Gemini has fixed the first AE12 transit. The vessel is Umm Qarn (voyages 642W westbound / 648E eastbound), departing Tanjung Pelepas on 27 October. The rotation runs Ningbo – Shanghai – Tanjung Pelepas – Suez – Algeciras – Koper – Rijeka – Algeciras (second call) – Suez – Singapore. Both Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd stress that a wider return of the East-West network is not yet under consideration.
  • Hapag-Lloyd and ZIM are back to square one. On 30 September Israel’s Government Companies Authority closed its review of the original application after a missed deadline for answering the government’s information request. It is not a formal rejection, but the original filing is no longer valid and a new application must be submitted by 6 October. In the same week Hapag-Lloyd raised its 2026 group EBIT guidance from $0.1-1.1bn to $1.25-1.75bn.
  • The post-Golden Week market may flip to surplus. Sea-Intelligence estimates that port delays are tying up 5% of global deep-sea capacity, or 1.7m TEU (against 2.2% pre-pandemic). As the Suez return frees that up, Asia-North Europe is taking 1.50m TEU over the four weeks around Golden Week — 27% more than last year and 60% above the pre-pandemic average.

Container rates and market conditions

Item Level Week on week
Drewry WCI composite (40ft) US$4,468 ▼ 1%
Shanghai → Los Angeles US$7,838 ▲ 2%
Shanghai → New York US$10,373 Flat
Shanghai → Genoa US$3,835 ▼ 5%
Shanghai → Rotterdam US$3,485 ▼ 4%
SCFI composite (25 September) 3,686 Reference
Blank sailings (East-West, 28 Sep – 1 Nov) 58 of 712 8%
Capacity tied up by delays 1.7m TEU 5% of global fleet
Shanghai berth waiting time 3.66 days Worse
Ningbo berth waiting time 2.51 days Worse

The composite slipped to $4,468. Of the four headline lanes only Shanghai to Los Angeles rose (+2%); on Asia-Europe, Shanghai to Genoa fell 5% to break below $4,000 and Shanghai to Rotterdam fell 4% to $3,485 (Japan to Rotterdam route). What matters here is that the direction of the market is being set by how capacity returns, not by demand. Sea-Intelligence puts the capacity currently tied up by port delays at 5% of the global fleet, or 1.7m TEU, well above the 2.2% that was normal pre-pandemic. If the Suez return and the easing of port congestion land at the same time, a shortage can turn into a surplus very quickly. On Asia-North Europe, 1.50m TEU is scheduled across the four weeks around Golden Week — 27% above last year and 60% above the pre-pandemic average — and no blank sailings have been planned for the holiday week or the week after it. Instead, delayed vessels and regular sailings are bunching into 12 double sailings. From 8 October the effect of factory shutdowns reaches the ports, so the sensible base case for late October is softer rates out of Asia.

For West Africa, the figures were not updated this week. The Kuehne+Nagel report for 23-29 September covers only Port Louis (2.0 days) and Tanger Med (1.0 day) in Africa; Tema, Abidjan, Conakry, Dakar and Lagos remain as published for 16-22 September. In other words this is missing data, not improvement, so schedules should still assume last week’s levels: Tema 6.35 days, Abidjan 6.80 days, Conakry 10.0 days, Dakar 2.5 days and Lagos (Apapa/Tincan) 1.0 day each (Japan to Tema route, Japan to Apapa route, Japan to Dakar route). Abidjan’s six-to-seven-week recovery plan runs out in mid-October, but the qualitative description — delays of around 12 days and elevated container dwell times — has not changed.

What does a westbound Suez switch mean for shippers?

Until now the services returning to Suez have been mostly eastbound, the leg back to Asia. The backhaul carries empties and relatively light cargo, so there is less to lose if Red Sea conditions deteriorate again. Carriers were testing on the cheap side. The COSCO and OOCL westbound sailing planned for 4 October takes that a step further.

What changes when the headhaul out of Asia moves to Suez? The biggest change is the release of vessel-days. Routing via the Cape adds roughly ten days each way compared with Suez, and extra ships are needed to hold the same weekly frequency. When the headhaul returns to Suez, that extra tonnage comes back to the market, which puts downward pressure on Asia-Europe spot rates in the short term.

There are three practical implications. First, there will be a period in which some services have shorter headhaul transit times and others do not. Check the actual port rotation and cut-off rather than the service name (how to read ETD, ETA and cut-off). Second, rotations built around Cape routing will be reshuffled. Cargo moving from Asia to West and Southern Africa has partly relied on vessels calling “on the way past the Cape”, and that logic weakens as the headhaul moves to Suez. Capacity and rates from November onwards deserve a fresh look. Third, a softening market is a poor moment to lock in long validity. Fixing long-term rates into a falling market tends to be unfavourable, while a reversal in Red Sea conditions could push rates up sharply. Shorter validity with more frequent renewal is easier to manage (what makes up an ocean freight rate).

Carrier by carrier

MSCActive

On 30 September, Alphaliner data showed MSC’s existing fleet and orderbook combined reaching about 10.47m TEU. The operated fleet is around 7.4m TEU, or 21.5% of global liner capacity, with an orderbook of roughly 2.94m TEU — equivalent to more than 30% of the entire 34.4m TEU containership fleet trading today. Behind the milestone is an order placed on 24 September for six 21,700 TEU LNG dual-fuel ships at Zhoushan Changhong International, worth about $1.35bn in total (around $225m each) with delivery expected in June 2029. On rates, MSC announced new FAK levels from the Far East to North Europe, the Mediterranean and the Black Sea on 29 September, applying from 19 October until 31 October. That the largest carrier will only quote two weeks ahead says something about how hard the post-Golden Week balance is to read. From 1 October MSC also introduced a Regional Cost Recovery (RCR) surcharge from Europe to the Middle East, covering the UAE and Upper Gulf.

MaerskActive

The first AE12 Suez transit, still undated last week, has now been fixed. The vessel is Umm Qarn (642W westbound / 648E eastbound), departing Tanjung Pelepas on 27 October and leaving Algeciras eastbound on 5 December. The rotation is Ningbo – Shanghai – Tanjung Pelepas – Suez – Algeciras – Koper – Rijeka – Algeciras (second call) – Suez – Singapore, giving a double call at Algeciras in both directions. AE11 (19 September, Antonia Maersk), AE5 (21 September, Marchen Maersk) and ME2 (24 September, Cornelia Maersk) have already switched, so with AE15 and AE19 six services now run via Suez. Both Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd state plainly that a wider return of the East-West network is not yet under consideration, and that any further change depends on stability in the Red Sea and no escalation of regional conflict.

CMA CGMActive

A batch of tariff changes took effect on 1 October. The Low Water Surcharge applies to all cargo at US$150 per TEU (postponed by a month from 1 September); peak season surcharges on Asia-US trades reach up to US$10,000 per unit until further notice; North Europe, the Baltic and Scandinavia to the west coast of South America carries a PSS of €300 or US$350 per container, and the East Mediterranean, Adriatic and Black Sea US$300 per container; cargo from West Mediterranean ports and Morocco to the United States attracts an RRI of US$250 per 20ft and US$500 per 40ft, 40ft high-cube and 45ft. On the Africa side, the reefer PSS from Europe to West Africa has doubled to €200 per TEU from the €100 that took effect on 1 September. The country-by-country PSS from China to West Africa that took effect on 21 September is unchanged (Senegal US$100, Ghana and Togo US$150, Nigeria, Côte d’Ivoire, Benin and Equatorial Guinea US$50, Liberia and others US$200, Angola and others US$75 per TEU).

COSCOActive

This is the week’s biggest development. COSCO and OOCL are set to make their first westbound (Asia-origin) Suez transit on 4 October (Linerlytica), the next step after shifting ten eastbound sailings to the canal since mid-September. Separately, OOCL told the Suez Canal Authority’s Ismailia meeting with 20 shipping lines and agencies that it plans a “trial” transit during October. COSCO SHIPPING Lines is weighing further transits, with three more vessels said to be due through the canal shortly. The Suez Canal Authority reports containership net tonnage of 72.1m tons for January to August 2026, up 54.2% year on year. On 30 September COSCO also launched a direct service from Algeciras and Sagunto to Montreal, linking Spain with Canada.

Hapag-LloydActive

On 29 September the carrier sharply raised its 2026 full-year guidance, lifting group EBIT from $0.1-1.1bn to $1.25-1.75bn and EBITDA from $2.7-3.7bn to $3.9-4.4bn, citing strong demand and the continuing development of freight rates. The ZIM acquisition, by contrast, moved backwards. On 24 September Hapag-Lloyd and FIMI submitted the main points of an improved proposal to the Israeli government, keeping the price unchanged at US$35 per share, or US$4.2bn, and changing only structural and security terms (lowering the notification threshold for a single foreign shareholder from 24% to 10%, transferring the golden share to ZIM Israel with strengthened protections, and maintaining direct services to key markets). Reports on 28 and 29 September said the prime minister’s office had recommended blocking the deal, and the finance ministry formally recommended against approval in its current form. Then, on 30 September, the Government Companies Authority closed its review of the original application after a missed deadline for answering the government’s information request. This is not a rejection, but the original filing is no longer valid, so a materially revised structure requires a fresh application and a fresh review. The deadline for a new application is 6 October, and the boards of ZIM, Hapag-Lloyd and FIMI would all need to approve again. The company still says it is aiming to close towards the end of 2026. Brazil’s CADE review of three South America east coast services continues in parallel, with a deadline at the end of March 2027.

ONEMinor

On 29 September ONE added an eastbound call at Rio de Janeiro to its Asia-East Coast South America SX2 service, giving two Rio calls per round voyage (from Seattle Bridge voyage 0105E, with the second Rio call scheduled for 15 October). During October it launches PEX, the Poland Egypt Express, running Gdansk – Bremerhaven – Alexandria with Alexandria served southbound only; the first sailing is Synergy Antwerp 642S, calling Gdansk between 15 and 17 October. The fourth-quarter European environmental surcharge took effect on 1 October, now extended to all cargo to and from the United Kingdom. It was also confirmed this week that ONE is one of the partners on HMM’s new India-East Africa GIA service, so ONE is another point of contact for East Africa enquiries (Japan to Mombasa route).

EvergreenNo change

No new rate or service announcements for the sixth consecutive issue. The latest official notice remains the operational advisory dated 7 September, with nothing new confirmed since 24 September. Operationally, Ever Smart (7,024 TEU), deployed on the Asia-Australia NEAX service, turned around off the Queensland coast on 25 September and headed north; the Australian Maritime Safety Authority attributed the change of direction to maintenance, with the vessel due at Kaohsiung on 13 October. Evergreen remains inside the Ocean Alliance framework, but no specific eastbound or westbound Suez sailing on an Evergreen-operated ship has been published.

HMMActive

The maiden sailing of the East Africa service GIA, outstanding in the last two issues, has now been confirmed. Two sailings left Nhava Sheva, on 23 and 27 September, and on 27 September MV HMM Cebu called at PSA Mumbai (BMCT) to formally inaugurate the service. The rotation is Nhava Sheva – Mundra – Dar es Salaam – Nhava Sheva – Mumbai – Mombasa – Nhava Sheva, structured as two loops, one via Dar es Salaam and one via Mombasa, with 2,300-2,800 TEU vessels on a weekly frequency. The service is operated jointly by six carriers — HMM, COSCO SHIPPING, OOCL, Interasia Lines, PIL and ONE — and there are plans to extend port calls to the Gulf in future. Mombasa is comparatively calm at a seven-day average berth wait of 2.0 days (Japan to Mombasa route, Japan to Dar es Salaam route). Because the service starts in India, cargo from Japan requires transhipment at Nhava Sheva.

Yang MingWatch

At the Suez Canal Authority’s Ismailia meeting on 24 September, Yang Ming’s general manager said the carrier was seriously considering a return to the canal in the near future. On the fleet side, the fourth ship in its 15,500 TEU LNG dual-fuel series, YM Weight (about 15,600 TEU, 364.97m long and 51m wide), was named at HD Hyundai Heavy Industries in Ulsan on 17 September and will be deployed on the Asia-West Mediterranean MS2 service. The rotation is worth noting: Pusan – Shanghai – Ningbo – Kaohsiung – Shekou – Singapore – (Cape of Good Hope) – Tangier – Valencia – Barcelona – Genoa – La Spezia – Fos – (Cape of Good Hope) – Singapore – Laem Chabang, meaning the service still routes via the Cape in both directions. The six 13,650 TEU ships ordered at Hanwha Ocean on 3 September (about KRW 1.5527tn, or US$1.14bn, delivering progressively by the second half of 2029) remain in progress.

ZIMActive

Shares fell 3.6% on 28 September, a fourth consecutive session of losses, after reports that the Israeli prime minister’s office had recommended blocking the Hapag-Lloyd acquisition. On 30 September the Government Companies Authority notified ZIM that it had closed its review of the original application, with 6 October set as the deadline for a new filing (see the Hapag-Lloyd entry). Commercially, the ZIM Falcon Service (ZFS) between Asia and the east coast of South America, launched on 13 September, continues to operate, and the EFS, NEF and GFS revisions of 1 September remain in place. Whatever the outcome of the acquisition talks, operations are running normally.

Wan HaiMinor

No new announcements this week. On 10 September Wan Hai signed the contract for six 11,000 TEU ships at Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding, firming up the order first announced on 12 August, at US$118-124m each, with methanol and LNG dual-fuel propulsion and compliance with EEDI Phase III. That brings its 2026 orders at Waigaoqiao to eight ships in total — one 9,200 TEU and seven 11,000 TEU vessels, worth a combined US$928-980m. Intra-Asia carriers are moving up from the 5,000 TEU class to the 10,000 TEU class, which over the medium term should leave more slack in intra-Asia feeder capacity.

Red Sea and Hormuz: the underlying conditions

The Bab el-Mandeb strait has been under effective Houthi control since the group took Mocha and Perim Island on 11-12 September. Carriers nonetheless pushed the Suez return a step further this week, on the basis of the group’s statement that transits are safe for everyone except Saudi-flagged vessels. No new strike on a merchant ship in the Red Sea has been confirmed.

The stake, however, is higher than it was. The Ocean Alliance has moved from eastbound only into westbound, and Gemini has extended to AE12. If a single vessel is targeted in the Red Sea, the volume of tonnage that returns to the Cape will be larger than it would have been a week ago. That reversibility is exactly why Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd stated, when announcing AE12, that any subsequent change depends on stability in the Red Sea and on no escalation of conflict in the region.

The other condition is the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed to routine commercial shipping since 30 July. War-risk insurance premiums for Hormuz transits have risen to 7.5-10% of hull value — roughly US$3m to US$21m per voyage, against about 0.25% in normal times — and Brent is trading above US$100. While Brent stays above US$100, carriers’ fuel-related surcharges (EFS and BAF) will not come down. A falling base rate does not automatically mean a falling all-in cost, so quotations are best compared line by line (what makes up an ocean freight rate).

Practical points for shippers and forwarders

  • Assume softer rates out of Asia in the second half of October. Scheduled capacity across the four weeks around Golden Week is up 27% year on year, and no blank sailings are planned for the holiday week or the week after. From 8 October the effect of factory shutdowns reaches the ports. This is not a good moment to fix long-term.
  • Treat West Africa as “not reported”, not “improved”. This week’s port report omits Tema, Abidjan and Conakry. Plan on last week’s levels (Tema 6.35 days, Abidjan 6.80 days, Conakry 10.0 days) and quote delivery dates on the basis of gate-out completion rather than vessel ETA (demurrage and detention).
  • A lot of charges changed on 1 October. CMA CGM’s Low Water Surcharge (US$150 per TEU) and the Europe to West Africa reefer PSS (€200 per TEU), ONE’s fourth-quarter European environmental surcharge, and MSC’s Europe to Middle East RCR. Quotations for October loading need to be refreshed.
  • Keep rate validity short. MSC, the largest carrier, has limited its new Far East to Europe FAK to 19-31 October. When the carrier itself will not quote beyond two weeks, there is little to gain from a long fix on the shipper side (what makes up an ocean freight rate).
  • East Africa has one more option. HMM’s GIA is now running two loops weekly into Dar es Salaam and Mombasa, and because six carriers co-operate the service, space on the same ship can be booked through any of them. Cargo from Japan transhipments at Nhava Sheva, so confirm the connecting transit time first (how booking works).

What to watch next

  • 4 OctWhether COSCO and OOCL complete the first westbound Suez transit. If they do, Cape capacity deployment finally starts to move.
  • 6 OctDeadline for a new ZIM / Hapag-Lloyd / FIMI application to Israel’s Government Companies Authority. Filing or not decides between resolution and a long delay.
  • OctoberOOCL’s Suez “trial” transit, separate from the 4 October westbound sailing — evidence that the switch is still being taken in stages.
  • From 8 OctPost-Golden Week capacity surplus and the rate reaction once the 12 double sailings have departed.
  • 15-17 OctFirst ONE PEX sailing (Synergy Antwerp 642S, ex Gdansk).
  • 19-31 OctValidity window for MSC’s Far East to North Europe, Mediterranean and Black Sea FAK. Watch for the November revision.
  • 27 OctMaersk AE12’s Umm Qarn (642W) departs Tanjung Pelepas for the service’s first Suez transit.
  • Mid-OctDeadline for Abidjan’s six-to-seven-week recovery plan. With delays still described at around 12 days, the outcome looks doubtful.
  • OngoingWhether the weekly port report resumes publishing West African waiting times.
  • OngoingYang Ming’s decision on returning to Suez. MS2 still routes via the Cape in both directions.
  • OngoingAny strike on a merchant ship in the Red Sea, and whether carriers reverse their Suez return.

Sources

  1. Drewry — World Container Index (24 September 2026)
  2. Seatrade Maritime — Container spot rates to US East and West coasts slide (Linerlytica on the 4 October westbound Suez sailing)
  3. PortNews — OOCL plans October Suez Canal trial as Yang Ming and COSCO weigh more transits
  4. The Middle East Observer — Suez return could flip container shipping from capacity shortage to surplus
  5. Container News — Sea-Intelligence: Golden Week capacity distortions
  6. Kuehne+Nagel — Port operational updates (23-29 September 2026)
  7. Kuehne+Nagel — Port operational updates (16-22 September 2026, latest West Africa data)
  8. Splash247 — MSC fleet and orderbook smash through 10m teu
  9. Container News — MSC announces new Far East to Europe FAK rates
  10. Container News — MSC introduces surcharge from Europe to Middle East
  11. El Estrecho Digital — Maersk sets the first transit of the AE12 service through the Suez Canal
  12. Maersk — Structural changes to AE5, AE11, AE12 and ME2 Gemini services
  13. Container News — CMA CGM announces new FAK rates and surcharges from October
  14. Container News — CMA CGM introduces PSS of up to US$10,000 on Asia-US trades
  15. Container News — CMA CGM updates peak season surcharges across major trades
  16. Container News — Israeli authority closes review of original $4.2 billion Hapag-Lloyd–ZIM deal structure
  17. Ynetnews — Israel halts review of Zim sale to Hapag-Lloyd, FIMI
  18. The Loadstar — Hapag-Lloyd ups 2026 profit forecast and submits revised Zim bid
  19. Globes — Hapag-Lloyd, FIMI submit revised offer for ZIM
  20. Container News — ONE adds second Rio de Janeiro call to SX2 service
  21. Container News — ONE launches weekly Poland-Egypt service
  22. Daily Cargo News — Evergreen ship forced back to Asia
  23. India Shipping News — PSA Mumbai welcomes GIA Service
  24. Khusoko — HMM enters Mombasa with new India container service
  25. Container News — Yang Ming adds 15,500 TEU LNG dual-fuel vessel to MS2 service
  26. SeaNews — Wan Hai Lines expands fleet with six new 11,000-TEU ships from Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding
  27. Cyprus Shipping News — The war premium has moved into the balance sheet
  28. Africa Center for Strategic Studies — Houthi leverage over the Red Sea escalates threats for Africa

This article was compiled by the OCEAN FREIGHT JAPAN editorial team from carrier announcements and press reports, covering 24 September to 1 October 2026. The Drewry WCI figures are from the 24 September release. Rate and surcharge levels and their conditions of application may change after announcement, and actual application varies by origin, commodity and contract terms. Please confirm applicability against each carrier’s official tariff and your own quotation.